If you've spent any time on DraftKings or FanDuel, you're fluent in moneylines. -150 favorite, +200 underdog, done. But then you open Polymarket and see "Yes 46¢" and "No 54¢" and suddenly it feels like you're reading a different language.
It's actually the same language. The numbers are just wearing different clothes. This post will show you how to read prediction market prices, how they translate to the odds formats you already know, and why being fluent in both gives you an edge when the same event is priced on both.
The one-sentence version
On Polymarket or Kalshi, the price in cents is the implied probability. A "Yes" contract at 46¢ means the market thinks there's a 46% chance the event happens. That's it. You buy at 46¢, and if you're right, you get paid $1.00. Your profit is 54¢ per contract.
The formula: Profit per contract = $1.00 − purchase price. Buy Yes at 27¢, win $1.00, pocket 73¢ profit. Buy No at 54¢, event doesn't happen, pocket 46¢ profit.
Compare that to a sportsbook, where -150 means... you need to bet $150 to win $100? Or was it $1.50 for every $1.00? The prediction market version is just more intuitive. 46 cents means 46 percent. Done.
Side-by-side: the same bet in three formats
Let's say there's a market on whether Bitcoin will be above $100,000 on June 1, and the "Yes" side is priced at 65¢. Here's what that looks like across formats:
| Format | Yes (happens) | No (doesn't happen) |
|---|---|---|
| Market price | 65¢ | 35¢ |
| Implied probability | 65% | 35% |
| Decimal odds | 1.538 | 2.857 |
| Moneyline | -186 | +186 |
Notice something? The prediction market prices add up to exactly 100¢ ($1.00). That's because Polymarket is a zero-vig exchange — there's no house edge baked into the price. On a sportsbook, the implied probabilities on a two-way market almost always sum to more than 100%. That extra percentage is the book's margin (or "juice").
This matters. It means prediction markets are often the sharpest price you'll find for an event, because the vig isn't distorting the number. Use our no-vig calculator to strip the juice from sportsbook lines and compare them apples-to-apples with prediction market prices.
How to convert in your head
Cents to decimal odds: Divide 100 by the price. A 25¢ contract? That's 100 ÷ 25 = 4.0 decimal odds. A 40¢ contract? 100 ÷ 40 = 2.5.
Cents to moneyline: This one's a bit harder mentally, which is why most people just use a converter. But the quick version: if the price is above 50¢, the moneyline is negative. If it's below 50¢, it's positive. A 70¢ contract is roughly -233. A 30¢ contract is roughly +233.
Moneyline to cents: A -200 favorite? That implies 66.7%, so about 67¢. A +300 underdog? That implies 25%, or 25¢. You can do this with our odds converter, which handles all three formats instantly.
A real conversion table
Bookmark this. It covers the price ranges you'll see most often:
| Market (¢) | Decimal | Moneyline | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10¢ | 10.00 | +900 | Long shot. 10% chance. |
| 25¢ | 4.00 | +300 | Underdog. 1-in-4 chance. |
| 33¢ | 3.03 | +203 | Roughly a coin flip’s cousin. |
| 50¢ | 2.00 | +100 | True coin flip. Even money. |
| 65¢ | 1.54 | -186 | Solid favorite. |
| 80¢ | 1.25 | -400 | Heavy favorite. Not much juice left. |
| 95¢ | 1.05 | -1900 | Near certainty. 5¢ upside max. |
Why being bilingual gives you an edge
The real power here isn't just translating numbers — it's spotting when the same event is priced differently across platforms. If Polymarket has "Democrats win the House" at 55¢ and a sportsbook has the equivalent at -140 (which implies 58.3%), that's a gap you can potentially exploit.
This kind of cross-platform comparison is exactly what our arbitrage calculator is built for. We just added a "Market ¢" input mode so you can plug in prediction market prices directly alongside sportsbook odds and see if there's a guaranteed profit hiding between them.
Even if you're not running full arbitrage, just knowing both pricing systems helps you evaluate whether a sportsbook line is sharp or soft. If Polymarket says 46¢ and DraftKings says -120 (which implies 54.5%), someone is wrong by 8.5 percentage points. That's a massive gap in any market.
The vig difference, visualized
Here's a concrete example of why this matters. Say two teams are truly 50/50. Here's how different platforms would price it:
Polymarket: Yes 50¢ / No 50¢. Sum = 100¢. No vig.
Typical sportsbook: -110 / -110 (each side implies 52.4%). Sum = 104.8%. The extra 4.8% is the book's cut.
That 4.8% is coming out of your pocket. Over hundreds of bets, it's the difference between being profitable and slowly bleeding money. Prediction markets don't have that hidden tax, which is one reason they're gaining traction with sharp bettors.
One thing to watch out for
Prediction market prices can sometimes add up to slightly more or less than $1.00 on multi-outcome markets (like "Who will win the Masters?" with 30+ golfers). This is similar to overround on a sportsbook, and it happens because of how the order book works on an exchange. Always check implied probability sums before assuming you've found an arbitrage — our arbitrage calculator does this automatically.
Also worth noting: prediction market liquidity can be thin on niche events. A price of 15¢ doesn't help you much if there's only $50 of depth at that level. Always check the order book before placing a large bet.
The bottom line: prediction market prices are just probabilities expressed in cents. Once you internalize that, you can compare any event across platforms in seconds. And if you find a gap? That's where the money is.