The goal is not to win the argument — it's to win in the long run.
Finding value in political prediction markets
Spreads, props, hedging, and bankroll strategy
Building bots on Polymarket and beyond
Anything you can put a number on
We put our money where our mouths are. Here's how we're doing.
New episodes drop weekly. Here's what we've been arguing about lately.
The show gets a new name. Matt and Andrew reveal what happened with their $100 AI trading bot challenge, break down a real edge in the Texas primary runoff, and explore arbitrage strategy for the Masters.
Listen nowMatt and Andrew break down live prediction market moves during the Iran strikes, debate whether Polymarket has an insider trading problem, and kick off a $100 AI trading bot challenge.
Listen nowDeep dives, trade breakdowns, and strategy pulled from the show.
Real trade data from a $7,500 Polymarket position. Entry at 16¢, exits up to 90¢.
One failed to authenticate. The other went rogue, bought high, sold low, and lost it all in minutes.
A betting strategy where you profit from being right, or celebrate if your team wins.
Free tools to help you think in probabilities and find +EV opportunities.
Convert between American, decimal, and fractional odds. Calculate implied probability and no-vig true odds.
Use Tool →Enter your bets across multiple outcomes to find arbitrage opportunities and see P&L per scenario.
Use Tool →Enter odds and your estimated true probability to find expected value, ROI, and whether a bet is +EV.
Use Tool →Strip the bookmaker's juice to see true implied probabilities and fair odds on any line.
Use Tool →Enter your original bet and desired profit to see exactly what you need on the other side to lock it in.
Use Tool →Two guys who think everything is a market, every decision has odds, and every argument deserves a bet on the outcome.
Ex-professional poker player turned marketing executive. Former CMO of ExpressVPN. Banned by multiple sportsbooks. Ten-year election betting winning streak.
Marketer, AI tinkerer, and newly minted prediction market enthusiast. Writer behind Family Meal and builder of trading bots — with mixed results.
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