The goal is not to win the argument — it's to win in the long run.
Finding value in political prediction markets
Spreads, props, hedging, and bankroll strategy
Building bots on Polymarket and beyond
Anything you can put a number on
We put our money where our mouths are. Here's how we're doing.
New episodes drop weekly. Here's what we've been arguing about lately.
Andrew's Masters portfolio imploded after drunk trading in Italy. Matt buys a World Cup arbitrage basket. A Polymarket "money glitch" on aliens. Andrew discovers weather betting and live-trades London temps. Plus: a 7-team Stanley Cup basket and a Frenchman with a hairdryer.
Listen nowPolymarket's hidden fee structure exposed. Matt finds arbitrage in the Democrat nomination market. Masters picks with a new betting angle. A SpaceX ticker symbol bet. And somehow, still undefeated on official podcast bets.
Listen nowDeep dives, trade breakdowns, and strategy pulled from the show.
Real trade data from a $7,500 Polymarket position. Entry at 16¢, exits up to 90¢.
The entire field on Polymarket adds up to 102.2% overround. Buy favorites for 75¢ on the dollar.
Daily resolution, local APIs for edge, and the hairdryer scandal that broke the internet.
Free tools to help you think in probabilities and find +EV opportunities.
Convert between American, decimal, and fractional odds. Calculate implied probability and no-vig true odds.
Use Tool →Enter your bets across multiple outcomes to find arbitrage opportunities and see P&L per scenario.
Use Tool →Enter odds and your estimated true probability to find expected value, ROI, and whether a bet is +EV.
Use Tool →Strip the bookmaker's juice to see true implied probabilities and fair odds on any line.
Use Tool →Enter your original bet and desired profit to see exactly what you need on the other side to lock it in.
Use Tool →Build a parlay with 2–15 legs in any odds format. See total odds, payout, profit, and estimated house edge.
Use Tool →Two guys who think everything is a market, every decision has odds, and every argument deserves a bet on the outcome.
Ex-professional poker player turned marketing executive. Former CMO of ExpressVPN. Banned by multiple sportsbooks. Ten-year election betting winning streak.
Marketer, AI tinkerer, and newly minted prediction market enthusiast. Builder of trading bots — with mixed results.
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