Man vs Machine vs the Miami Dolphins: Our NFL Season Bets
NFL only, no politics. The main event is three Super Bowl baskets, scored against each other all season: Andrew’s 8-team true Dutch (he learned the term from a guy who works in sportsbooks; it’s named after a gangster), Matt’s 11-team basket tilted hard toward two teams, and a third built by Matt’s AI straight off the win-totals model, no opinions allowed. Also: the Dolphins suck and how you can exploit it. Plus Magic Markets, the new venue pulling sportsbook and prediction-market prices into one book; Circa’s $20 million no-rake survivor pool and the $125 proxy that gets you into it; a lightning round Matt loses; and week 1 bets, Andrew on a three-leg parlay with two road teams, Matt on five spreads.
NFL Is Back: The Lions Are Underpriced, Should Rubio Scare Democrats & Is AOC’s Surge a Mirage?
Ten episodes in, and the NFL is twelve days out. Matt argues the Detroit Lions are the most mispriced team in football: 9.5 wins in Vegas with the over at −180, one of the softest schedules in the league, and roughly 4¢ on Polymarket with nine teams priced above them. Dallas is the same screen in reverse. Plus the Emerson poll where almost every Democrat beats Vance but AOC loses to both Republicans, the nine-point swing between Vance and Rubio, and why Andrew takes 2¢ on “AOC runs for neither” over 38 on Senate. Matt keeps buying Democrats to take the House, in at 81¢ and now 89, while the Senate sits at 51/51 with no read at all. New bets: Andrew on the Raiders in a preseason game he traded out of at half loss, Matt on Lions and Bengals to win the Super Bowl at around 25-to-1 apiece.
We’re Back: World Cup Confessions, Betting the 2026 Midterms & NFL Value Picks
Back after a long summer hiatus (one tonsillectomy, one safari, one very expensive World Cup final). The main event is the 2026 midterms: eight of the ten closest Senate races lean Democrat, yet Republicans are still favored to keep the Senate, and Matt puts 20 units on R Senate / D House at 40¢, his third-biggest bet of the year. Plus the World Cup postmortem (Andrew’s basket banked Spain; Matt chased 90 units on Argentina and paid for it), early Super Bowl baskets (Bengals, Lions, Chargers cheap; Chiefs and Bills rich), the SpaceX ticker bet resolves, and Andrew bets against Google shipping Gemini Pro by August 14. The midterms math from this episode lives on the blog, updated as prices move: what are the odds of the Democrats winning the Senate in 2026?
How to Actually Make Money on Polymarket
Andrew’s up 150% on the year but sitting all cash with nothing to bet on. Matt walks through his best current opportunities: Democrats to take the House at 83¢, hantavirus at 10¢, aliens, and the Ken Paxton Texas Senate runoff. Then the real playbook: bet what you know, chase reward markets, use limit orders, and think like a trader. Andrew breaks down his weather swing-trade strategy. Matt digs into Polymarket’s fee structure, 1.8% on crypto, 1.0% on politics, 0.75% on sports. They spot a paradox in the Senate midterm odds and both bet Belgium to win the World Cup at 2¢.
Masters Meltdown, World Cup Arbitrage, Weather Betting & the Aliens Money Glitch
Andrew's Masters portfolio imploded after drunk trading in Italy turned a 3-unit winner into a 4.5-unit loss. Matt lost 8 units but clawed back 3 by trading. Both pivot to the 2026 World Cup with field-betting arbitrage, the entire field adds up to just 102.2% overround. Matt finds a "money glitch" rolling monthly alien bets for 50% annualized ROI. Andrew discovers weather markets and live-trades London temperatures during the show. Plus: NHL playoffs expansion rant, Matt buys a 7-team Stanley Cup basket, and a Frenchman allegedly gamed Polymarket with a hairdryer.
Polymarket Fees, Democrat Nomination Arbs, Masters Picks, SpaceX Ticker Bet, & Still Undefeated
Matt breaks down Polymarket's hidden fee structure and how it eats into your edge. Democrat nomination markets have an arbitrage opportunity. Masters picks with a fresh angle. Matt bets on SpaceX getting a public ticker symbol. Plus: the Arizona March Madness position gets traded out for a $70 profit, proof that prediction market exits change everything. The official podcast scorecard stays undefeated.
Still Undefeated: Kalshi Gets Sued, WBC Arbs & Blind Betting a French Mayor
Five resolved bets, five wins. Tim cashes the Oscars. Kalshi raises $1B while getting sued in Arizona, prediction market or gambling operation? Matt finds 144:1 on Italy in the World Baseball Classic while sportsbooks had 35:1. Andrew discovers 5-minute Bitcoin markets and starts live betting during the show. Plus: whale wallet tracking, the Netanyahu hoax bet, and new bets on Arizona March Madness and the Lyon mayoral election.
Name Change, Bot Challenge Results, Texas Primary Edge & Masters Arbitrage
The big reveal: the podcast is now World at Odds. Matt lost the $100 bot challenge (and owes Andrew a hundred bucks), while Andrew's bot sold a position at 1 cent. They break down a live edge trade on the Texas primary runoffs, explore field betting arbitrage strategy for the Masters, and debate whether AI trading bots can actually beat Polymarket. Plus: a Trump Jr. long shot bet at under 2 cents.
Iran Strikes, Polymarket Insider Trading & the $100 Bot Challenge
Matt and Andrew dig into the Iran strike markets on Polymarket, how to trade breaking news, the latency advantage, and whether selling into a confirmed headline is smart or insane. They unpack the insider trading debate, Andrew introduces OpenClaw, and they set up the $100 bot challenge. Also: the aliens market, ceasefire odds, and regime change in Iran.
Super Bowl Scoring, Betting for Beginners & the Aliens Debate
Matt brings in Tim Williams, an architect from Omaha with zero gambling experience, for a crash course in betting fundamentals. Matt walks through his Super Bowl bet that netted 120 units of profit, explaining emotional hedging, money lines vs. spreads, and when to cash out. They cover midterms, Nebraska governor, Oscars, and the aliens question.
Greenland, 2028 Election Nominees, Super Bowl Odds & Mark Kelly
The one that started it all. Matt and Andrew lay out what the show is about: looking at the world through probability and putting real money where their mouths are. Greenland acquisition odds, 2028 presidential nominees, Super Bowl betting strategy, and the case for Mark Kelly as an undervalued 2028 contender. First bets are placed.