Masters Meltdown, World Cup Arbitrage, Weather Betting & the Aliens Money Glitch
Andrew's Masters portfolio imploded after drunk trading in Italy turned a 3-unit winner into a 4.5-unit loss. Matt lost 8 units but clawed back 3 by trading. Both pivot to the 2026 World Cup with field-betting arbitrage — the entire field adds up to just 102.2% overround. Matt finds a "money glitch" rolling monthly alien bets for 50% annualized ROI. Andrew discovers weather markets and live-trades London temperatures during the show. Plus: NHL playoffs expansion rant, Matt buys a 7-team Stanley Cup basket, and a Frenchman allegedly gamed Polymarket with a hairdryer.
Polymarket Fees, Democrat Nomination Arbs, Masters Picks, SpaceX Ticker Bet, & Still Undefeated
Matt breaks down Polymarket's hidden fee structure and how it eats into your edge. Democrat nomination markets have an arbitrage opportunity. Masters picks with a fresh angle. Matt bets on SpaceX getting a public ticker symbol. Plus: the Arizona March Madness position gets traded out for a $70 profit — proof that prediction market exits change everything. The official podcast scorecard stays undefeated.
Still Undefeated: Kalshi Gets Sued, WBC Arbs & Blind Betting a French Mayor
Five resolved bets, five wins. Tim cashes the Oscars. Kalshi raises $1B while getting sued in Arizona — prediction market or gambling operation? Matt finds 144:1 on Italy in the World Baseball Classic while sportsbooks had 35:1. Andrew discovers 5-minute Bitcoin markets and starts live betting during the show. Plus: whale wallet tracking, the Netanyahu hoax bet, and new bets on Arizona March Madness and the Lyon mayoral election.
Name Change, Bot Challenge Results, Texas Primary Edge & Masters Arbitrage
The big reveal: the podcast is now World at Odds. Matt lost the $100 bot challenge (and owes Andrew a hundred bucks), while Andrew's bot sold a position at 1 cent. They break down a live edge trade on the Texas primary runoffs, explore field betting arbitrage strategy for the Masters, and debate whether AI trading bots can actually beat Polymarket. Plus: a Trump Jr. long shot bet at under 2 cents.
Iran Strikes, Polymarket Insider Trading & the $100 Bot Challenge
Matt and Andrew dig into the Iran strike markets on Polymarket — how to trade breaking news, the latency advantage, and whether selling into a confirmed headline is smart or insane. They unpack the insider trading debate, Andrew introduces OpenClaw, and they set up the $100 bot challenge. Also: the aliens market, ceasefire odds, and regime change in Iran.
Super Bowl Scoring, Betting for Beginners & the Aliens Debate
Matt brings in Tim Williams — an architect from Omaha with zero gambling experience — for a crash course in betting fundamentals. Matt walks through his Super Bowl bet that netted 120 units of profit, explaining emotional hedging, money lines vs. spreads, and when to cash out. They cover midterms, Nebraska governor, Oscars, and the aliens question.
Greenland, 2028 Election Nominees, Super Bowl Odds & Mark Kelly
The one that started it all. Matt and Andrew lay out what the show is about: looking at the world through probability and putting real money where their mouths are. Greenland acquisition odds, 2028 presidential nominees, Super Bowl betting strategy, and the case for Mark Kelly as an undervalued 2028 contender. First bets are placed.