The game: pick one NFL team to win each week. Win and you stay in, lose and you're out, and you can't use a team twice. Before you start, check your pool's rules on when picks lock and whether a tie counts as a loss.
Level 1: the 30-second method
Open Cloudbet's NFL page. Look down the spread column for the biggest minus number. That team is the biggest favorite of the week. Pick them.
Week 1 on Cloudbet. The Chargers at -9 are the biggest favorite. The 1.18 in the last column is the same team's price to win. One warning: Cloudbet lists the home team on top.
Or: pick against the worst teams
The biggest favorite is almost always the team playing one of the league's worst. So here's a shortcut that needs no odds page at all. These are the five teams the sportsbooks expected to win the fewest games this season, from their preseason win totals.
| Team | Expected wins (of 17) |
|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 3.5 |
| Miami Dolphins | 4.5 |
| Cleveland Browns | 5.5 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 5.5 |
| New York Jets | 5.5 |
Write down these teams. Every week, pick someone who plays against one of them, and your strategy won't be that bad, guaranteed. Bonus points when the bad team has to travel. Preseason win totals from BetMGM.
Reading the numbers
Every game shows two numbers. The spread is how much a team is expected to win by. The price (or moneyline) is what you'd be paid for that team to win, full stop. Survivor only needs the win.
Cloudbet shows decimal prices by default (you can switch to American or fractional in settings); US sites show American. Same thing, different format. The smaller the decimal, or the more negative the American number, the bigger the favorite.
| Decimal | American | Chance to win |
|---|---|---|
| 1.10 | -1000 | 91% |
| 1.20 | -500 | 83% |
| 1.25 | -400 | 80% |
| 1.33 | -300 | 75% |
| 1.50 | -200 | 67% |
| 1.67 | -150 | 60% |
| 2.00 | +100 | 50% |
Any other price: odds converter.
Two things to keep in mind. Nothing is safe: a 1.10 favorite still loses one week in ten. And the book's margin is baked in, so the real chance is a few points lower than the table, more so for heavy favorites.
Last reading skill: which team is at home. US sites list the away team first. Cloudbet lists the home team first.
Why picking against bad teams works
I pulled five seasons (2021 to 2025) of results for every team the sportsbooks expected to be awful before the season, meaning a preseason win total under 5. Nine teams, 153 games, from the public nflverse game file.
| Bad team was… | Games | Opponent won | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| At home | 76 | 51 | 67% |
| On the road | 77 | 59 | 77% |
| All games | 153 | 110 | 72% |
Whoever played the bad team won 72% of the time, and 77% when the bad team had to travel.
Level 2: quick checks before you lock in
Home is a tiebreaker, not a rule. Home field is already in the price. When two picks are close, take the home team; don't pass up a clearly bigger favorite because they're away.
Prefer the team coming off a bye week. Two weeks of rest and fewer injuries. Another tiebreaker.
Be careful with Thursday games. You lock in before Friday's injury news.
Check for late weather. Wind or snow that shows up in Saturday's forecast isn't in the price yet.
Look at the price one more time right before your pool locks. It moves when a quarterback gets hurt on Friday.
Level 3: plan the whole season
Don't burn your best teams early. The best teams are big favorites many weeks, and you only get each one once. Use the Rams in Week 1 and they're gone when you need them in Week 12.
Look ahead. If this week's biggest favorite has an even easier game later, save them and take the next-biggest now. Weeks 1 to 3 usually offer several big favorites, so spend one you won't need later.
Know the weeks with no big favorite. Bye weeks run roughly Weeks 5 to 14, and some of those weeks have no easy game. Find them now and hold a good team back.
Use your last great team by Week 17. In Week 18, teams that have already clinched a playoff spot rest their starters.
In a big pool, look at the crowd. ESPN shows the percentage of entries on each team (below). If half the pool is on one favorite and it loses, they all go out together. Taking the second-biggest favorite trades a little safety for a bigger share if the crowd busts. In a small pool, ignore this and just survive.
Week 1 on ESPN's survivor picks page. One in five entries is on the Chargers; the Raiders are at 5.7%.
Week 1: the bad teams and who they play
Cloudbet prices as of September 9. Check again before your pool locks.
| Bad team | Plays | Their opponent's price | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | at Chargers | 1.18 | 85% |
| Browns | at Jaguars | 1.22 | 82% |
| Dolphins | at Raiders | 1.50 | 67% |
| Jets | at Titans | 1.81 | 55% |
The Titans at 55% is a coin flip, so that one's out. The Chargers and Jaguars are the safe picks. But consider the Raiders: pick them now, because it might be your only chance all season. They're at home against the very weak Dolphins, and using them here lets you save the Chargers for another week.