Man vs Machine vs the Miami Dolphins: Our NFL Season Bets

0:00 Matt: do you want to talk shit on the dolphins now or do you want to do it later? Should we spend the rest of the episode talking shit on the dolphins or what are you thinking?

0:05 Andrew: I mean, I never get tired of talking shit on the dolphins. How are you?

0:08 Matt: I'm doing well. I heard you got a shiny new thing in your apartment this week.

0:13 Andrew: I do. You know, I've become a bit of a pod man lately. I'm all about the pods. And, my good friend Matt, who has stayed in my apartment a few times while I've been out of town, has, uh, given me a new pod. A pod machine.

0:27 Matt: The coffee machine?

0:28 Andrew: Yeah, a coffee machine that takes pods. Yeah. What'd you think I was talking about?

0:32 Matt: No, nothing.

0:33 Andrew: That's it. Good. Yeah. So now. Yeah. So we're both drinking. You are here in person, and we're both drinking, deliciously fresh coffee from my new, in-house pod machine.

0:42 Matt: I'm actually drinking your leftover water. Look at. Look how light this is.

0:45 Andrew: Oh, you ran it through twice. That's your own mistake.

0:47 Matt: Yeah, I did. I did.

0:54 Andrew: Uh! Hey, man.

0:55 Matt: Hey. I'm here.

0:56 Andrew: Do you, uh, do you know what starts one week from today?

1:00 Matt: Yeah. NFL starts a week from today. Super excited. Finally, we made it Whatever, thirty six, nine, twelve weeks. It was a long wait. Whatever it was, the summer was long. Baseball was boring as shit and NFL is back.

1:11 Andrew: Yeah. I don't agree that baseball's boring as shit, but the NFL is back and that is by far our favorite sport in the calendar. And we're both very excited about it. And so we're going to talk about it this episode.

1:20 Matt: I have an idea. Also. Let's do no politics today. let's cleanse our souls. No politics, sports only.

1:26 Andrew: Okay. And should we focus on just one sport?

1:29 Matt: Yeah.

1:29 Andrew: Okay.

1:30 Matt: Because I didn't do research for any other sport. So I hope we can do this one sport.

1:33 Andrew: World at odds. Episode eleven, NFL only. Get ready. Here we go.

1:39 Matt: Let's do it.

1:41 Andrew: Obviously, college football is also kicking off. I assume we're going to stick to NFL because do you bet college football at all?

1:47 Matt: You know I don't but I think you get a better edge on that because there's a lot more teams, a lot more data to crunch. I feel like that info is pretty perfect in the NFL. But what about you? Have you are you a college football betting man?

1:58 Andrew: Wait, so you mean there's more there's more information that's not fully saturated into the world and the markets that you can find and grab hold of.

2:07 Matt: Yeah, I think so. I think so because there's just so many teams. So if let's just say you live outside the practice facility and I don't know where Marshall University is. And then you can like get some piece of information like. But anything that happens at any training facility, whatever at NFL, like someone's watching it and like ESPN, the local reporters there all the time. So I just feel like there's some information you can get. That's a pretty bad example, but that is not perfectly traded already.

2:32 Andrew: Yeah, ESPN is watching. Bill Belichick is probably watching whether or not he's coaching in the NFL. Um okay fine. Fair enough. I'm not an NCAA bettor either on football because I did not grow up in a town with a great football team. And my dad did not go to the state university. So I feel like, there were a lot of kids in my school whose dads went to Mizzou. I grew up in Missouri And On Sundays, their dad would be like, all right, load up. We're going down to Colombia in the car, and we're going to go watch the game and tailgate and do all that stuff. My dad was not that kind of dad, so I didn't grow up with. I grew up with college football on the TV, but I didn't grow up with it as like a fan experience. so I stick to the NFL.

3:13 Matt: do you think your dad listens to this podcast?

3:15 Andrew: No, not yet, but he might. I should send it to him.

3:18 Matt: You haven't sent it to him yet? No. This is why we have thirteen listeners. Because Andrew hasn't even sent it to his dad. Okay, so you said he's not a you said your dad is not a tailgating at Mizzou. By the way, he went to KU. And Mizzou is the worst. But anyway, what kind of dad was he?

3:33 Andrew: he was he loved sports. He loved he loved baseball. But he was he grew up in Cincinnati. So he would watch the Reds. He would like just sigh at the Bengals every week, that kind of thing.

3:44 Matt: What kind of beer does your dad drink? I feel like this is now becoming an aside. I feel like you now have to send this to him because we're having this whole.

3:49 Andrew: Yeah, he doesn't drink, so.

3:50 Matt: He doesn't drink.

3:51 Andrew: At all. No beer.

3:52 Matt: Okay. Got it. Because I was envisioning, he's like watching the reds. You have your like yellow sofa from the seventies. He pulls you close and says, here, son, try a Budweiser.

4:00 Andrew: No, he would have one of the original like the original soda waters in the can. I think they were called Mendota Springs or something like that. There was a classic like pre Lacroix. They went through a little bit of a burst. So that's what he would do. You'd have a Mendota Springs, he would do all the yard work and housework and all the stuff that he could do on the weekends and then, take me to the hardware store, that kind of stuff. Play catch. And then he would, he would just have the TV running sports. And it was a great time. Good, good childhood. Matt. Good childhood.

4:26 Matt: It seems like it. And you turned out well. So that's, that's the thing. But speaking of turning out well, let's talk about this NFL season and how it's going to turn out well. And what's next.

4:36 Andrew: Yeah. Let's go. Let's do, uh, let's talk about Dutching, which I finally learned is the term for this thing that we've been talking about of building baskets, um, of teams. It comes from a guy, uh, a guy who works in sports books just told me this. It comes from a guy who named like Dutch Schultz. It's actually a nickname for him. And this was one of his strategies that he ran. Was this sort of like buying multiple teams, um, at all the right prices and waiting for the end of the season to just cash out on one of those winning. so we're going to do some dutching. I think let's start with that.

5:07 Matt: Holy shit. I mean, I, you have blown my mind. I like it. Okay, let's do some Dutching. So we're talking NFL Super Bowl baskets. We have both put together a basket for the whole season with some teams. And I also asked my agent who I named Charlie. Um, it was named after Charlie from Always Sunny in Philadelphia to put together his own basket, sort of without so much free will. Based on the blog post we did last week. So why don't we talk about why don't we talk about your basket first, go through your teams really quickly first, and then, uh, what's your strategy?

5:39 Andrew: Okay. So I basically I looked at, I'm placing most of my stuff on, uh, magic markets this time around. And we talked about poly a lot, but magic had some better prices on these things. So like for right now, my team's, um, they go down the order of the, you know, the top ten, ten teams, but I've pulled a few out. So I've got Rams bills, Seahawks, Ravens, Lions, Chargers, Eagles and Pats. So looking at the list here, the people the teams that I've left out are the Chiefs um the Texans and I think the Broncos. Um those are my three that I've left out. I took out the Chiefs because they're just it's a team in decline and we just have to accept that. Sorry, Matt. It's. It is what it is. It hurts. We'll see how Patty does coming back from his, uh, his ACL. But, I don't see them going all the way this year. Okay. You can take your lumps on that one. Um, the Texans is just a really boring gut feel. I don't know what to say about that. I just I don't see them. And same with the Broncos.

6:42 Matt: I have the same gut feel to be honest.

6:44 Andrew: And then keeping in teams lower down. Um, the Chargers have a chance to play at SoFi if they make it all the way to the Super Bowl. So that just like, I mean, that's a really sort of silly way to look at this kind of thing because you've got to make it there first. And, it's a nice little, nice little plus, um, the Eagles are, I just feel like they always have great potential and they, um, they will this year as well. And then the Pats, uh, were a pure AI entry because Claude pulled them out and looked at them against DraftKings and some other places and said that they were the most underpriced on prediction markets anywhere. So that's my list. And the one thing that I'm very happy about is the Rams, which are now priced upwards. I already say this of eighteen cents on on poly are down at sixteen nine on on magic. So I'm getting a full cent discount there. Um in building this this Dutch.

7:33 Matt: Very good. Okay. Should we take a quick aside. So let's explain to readers what is magic. Because we've mostly been talking about prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi and I'm not as familiar with magic markets myself. So could you just let's just introduce that very briefly. What is magic markets?

7:49 Andrew: these guys came out of stealth last week I think, and their whole pitch is well, there's loads of prediction markets launching and then there's two other things. There's aggregators and there's these terminals. So aggregators are the things that like they literally just layer on top of mostly just polymarket and Kalshi. And when you place a bet, they take like routed through walls, they do all this shit. And basically you're just placing markets directly through Poly and Kalshi and that's it on those things. it's fine, but it's kind of janky. Terminals are like, they build this like Bloomberg esque thing basically on top of the same structure. And often they try to charge you to use it, which seems a little silly in the, in my opinion, in the, in the days of AI, when you can sort of build that for yourself and you have in a lot of ways built those terminals for yourself. so magic is doing this thing where they're pulling in prices from all the prediction markets, but they're also pulling in prices from all the sports book liquidity in the world. Interesting sports book liquidity. And then they're making it sort of one click execution. So you just have one wallet with them. You, the order book that they have that you see is just all the best prices from all the places. And so basically, you're guaranteed to get filled at the best price. And they apparently have like just global sports liquidity. So no matter what, you're going to get your bet filled.

8:59 Matt: I have one major question. So is it a prediction market or is it a sports book?

9:05 Andrew: So it's it's the two combined. So that's, that's why I like it because you can get parlays on everything the way you would bet on a sports book. You can get Asian handicaps, which a lot of prediction markets don't do very well right now. they're still working on the UI, and there is a little bit of an issue where like, you can't you don't buy shares necessarily in some of the markets because of the way it works. So you might buy in and if you want to trade out, you sort of have to have cash to buy the other side. And then they credit it back to you on smart credit, but they're working on that. I think they will, they will get there in terms of like the, the UI being very similar to what you, you would find with a, um, with one of the prediction markets you're used to.

9:42 Matt: Okay. So it sounds like hopefully the best of both worlds. Okay, we'll talk more about them later. I want to let's get back to the betting. So let's get back to your basket. I find your basket pretty interesting. And you also said you're kind of doing an even even buys on everyone except you're doing a bit more on the Lions, based on the epiphany we had last week about maybe the Lions being underpriced based on their Vegas win line total. Um, is that right? So you have a bit more on the Lions than kind of equal on everyone else. That's what you're planning to do or.

10:06 Andrew: Yeah. Well, I already put some on the Lions last week. So at our last episode and I'm I'm going to build this basket separate to that bet. And maybe I'll treat that other Lions pool as something I can trade out of, um, you know, a little bit later in the season. But yes, the Lions are weighted a little heavier because we got good prices on those last week.

10:22 Matt: cool. And I have the same obviously, and I want to just kind of go through the differences. So I have eleven teams. You have eight. I had my Claude do. Ten. I had my Claude pull from the blog post, https://www.worldatodds.com/blog/nfl-win-totals-vs-polymarket-odds which we did, which compared the Vegas win line totals, did four hundred thousand simulations of the season, and then try to say, based on Polymarket odds and Vegas win totals for the season, which teams are over and underpriced. So that I basically just said, take the best value teams and build a ten team basket from there, and I will buy a thousand shares of each. And then we will do a little competition of our baskets. All our baskets me, you and versus Charlie, my AI and see how it goes. Anyway, okay, so my basket really briefly. So I also have so I have Rams bills, Ravens, Lions, uh, Pats all the same as you. I am missing the Seahawks. I didn't put them. And I have Bengals which you don't have. Then I have Chargers Eagles Chiefs bears a little bit on the Giants. A little back door there. That's a tip from a tip from my girlfriend, actually. That's who she wanted to bet on. Those are my eleven teams. And then the model's teams I'll go through those briefly are Rams, bills, Ravens, Lions, Patriots, Seahawks, Bengals 49ers Packers and Saints. I think that Saints buy is a little bit suspect. But we're going to do what the AI says and see and see how it goes.

11:33 Andrew: Yeah the Saints is fascinating.

11:35 Matt: Zero point three yeah we will see. We'll see how that goes.

11:39 Andrew: Yeah that's just like like a penny stock. I think like exactly. I mean it's funny, I was talking to Claude about the relative divisional weight of my basket because I wanted to make sure that one side didn't crumble early and then I had nothing going going into the playoffs. and it said I was doing fine in terms of divisions. but I was missing NFC South and then it said, don't bother with the NFC South. The best team in there is Tampa at 1.6c\ so leaving empty costs you absolutely nothing. And I got to say the Saints are in that division. So if Claude's telling me don't even bet on the best team in the NFC South and the model is telling you to bet on a tier, tier or two down. That's an interesting bet.

12:19 Matt: Well, it's just following what I said. I didn't ask it to do deep research mode. I said just follow the teams which are underpriced. Yeah. Because then we can also trade out of them. So I might also try to trade out of this one. See if it does better than ours in terms of ROI. So I just want to say we're publishing all this, by the way, so you can find our baskets at https://www.worldatodds.com/blog/model-super-bowl-basket-2026 So you go to the blog and then there's a model Super Bowl Basket twenty twenty six post, which is going to detail everything but my baskets a little bit tilted. So I just wanted to talk about that. So mine is my biggest two teams are Bengals and Lions. If they win I'm going to win about sixty units. But meanwhile if the bears win, I'm basically breaking even. So I am really like tilting mine like up and down based on my own gut feel. So I might even even if one of my basket teams win, I might barely break even. But like I said, we'll publish all of that so you can see and follow along with the with the basket

13:08 Andrew: That's interesting. So you're not you're not doing a true Dutch here. No, I don't think and also like I'm intrigued by two things. One is the inclusion of the bears, which I think is I guess if you're planning on trading out throughout the season, then that's fine. Um, I think I'm going to do a true Dutch and maybe I'll dump stuff off if like, you know, if a team is really struggling. Yeah. Um, but I'm going to keep it true Dutch and I'm keeping it. I think mine comes in at, uh, sixty cents, maybe a little under, um, maybe a little over, but I think that's about the right price for holding this many teams throughout the entire season and just letting it stick. Because if you've got guaranteed forty cents, if one of the team wins, I think that's a good, a good profit margin to hold for the twenty weeks or whatever it is.

13:50 Matt: Do you want to do a Dutch rudder?

13:52 Andrew: Sorry, what is a Dutch rudder.

13:53 Matt: I think you should. I think you should look that up on Urban Dictionary right now. I'll wait for a second. All right. I think, I think I think you're gonna look it up. And while you're looking that up, I'm going to say My point is not to buy drastically different shares between the teams in order to like trade out. In fact, I got really burned on that in World Cup and I lost a bunch of money. What I'm planning to do is, is hold. I see you looking this up. Wait, wait a second, wait a second. What I'm planning to do is hold and not trade in and out. But my thing is, like, I have the chiefs. I don't really think the Chiefs are going to win the Super Bowl. But if I were to lose my whole basket and the Chiefs won, I would feel like conflicted. So I'm just kind of covering them a little bit over break even so that I can not feel sad if they actually win the Super Bowl. So some of them I'm just covering my bases. Eagles, Chiefs, bears and Chargers not really going to profit a lot. Um, but yeah. Okay. Now you've come back, you've been on Urban Dictionary. You're back.

14:43 Andrew: I've looked it up. I'm not going to describe it. It sounds like a it's like a soaking thing. Is it like a Mormon thing? Like what is the I don't know.

14:50 Matt: I don't even know that we've looked up the same thing. All right. Now we are veering off course. Yeah. And I think we should come back on course. Can you what's what's next?

14:59 Andrew: Okay. I want to talk about. Um, is this the opposite of a basket? I'm not sure.

15:05 Matt: Yeah. An anti basket would be the what would be the opposite of a basket.

15:09 Andrew: Well I mean the true opposite I guess would be picking all the losers. But we are going to instead of picking all the losers we're going to pick one loser and go with it.

15:17 Matt: Oh, I like that.

15:19 Andrew: Yeah.

15:20 Matt: Okay. Who's your loser? Who's your biggest loser?

15:22 Andrew: Well, we talked last week. I think we did like a quick quiz. And we decided the three teams that were Under five wins were going to be The Cardinals were at the bottom. Yeah. Then the Dolphins then the Jets. Yeah. And of those three teams we both have a special place in our heart for watching the Dolphins fail.

15:41 Matt: Yeah. Just crash and burn. And in fact, we have taken this to the next level, uh, in a couple of ways. So last night I had my Claude Crunch, all the numbers. I said, hey, what if over the last five seasons, so what if we just bet against the worst teams in football? Worst teams in football defined as. Look at the Vegas over under lines as far as how many win totals at the beginning of the season and then just bet against those teams all season. How would you do. And actually it does come out ahead, basically if you just bet against moneyline, all the losing teams in five of the nine times that it happened over the last five seasons, you would be up two hundred and seventy dollars on fifteen thousand dollars deployed. So you'd be making a profit. But the thing is that five years it was profitable. Four years it was not P value is zero point three five. So probably due to random chance. But I think we have an edge here because the dolphins suck worse than.

16:35 Andrew: The dolphins suck. It's a great edge. It's a great edge, an intellectual edge, one might say.

16:39 Matt: Indeed. So what we're going to do is we're going to put one hundred bucks on every game, moneyline all season and see if it comes out ahead. One other thing that Claude found, which was sorry Charlie found, which was It seems to be that the advantage for this bet is more pronounced in the first half of the season. And then kind of the lines start to adjust the second half. So at least we should do it for the first nine games. But maybe we'll do it the whole season. But uh, but I feel like it's going to be fun to bet against Miami, uh, every week.

17:06 Andrew: Yeah, I think so. I think it gives us something to root for.

17:10 Matt: Yeah. Yeah, I think so.

17:12 Andrew: Yeah. Great. Good.

17:13 Matt: What do you think is the worst about the dog. Do you think it's the coaching. Do you think it's their player acquisition. Do you think it's the fact that they're still paying people that aren't on their roster. What do you think is the worst part.

17:21 Andrew: Yeah I think that's for me it's the quarterback situation.

17:24 Matt: Sorry.

17:25 Andrew: Also I mean for the Tua tragedy. Um, but also the, uh, yeah, I think just, um, for me, it's the fact that like every year is a rebuilding year, but you can't possibly have a rebuilding year while you're paying ten guys, you know, a hundred million dollars or whatever they're doing right now. So it's just like, I just don't they've dug themselves such a ridiculous hole. I don't know how they get out. Now I'm starting to feel bad for them. Yeah. We do this on the Jets instead. No I'm sorry. The Jets already get beat up enough. Um, no. Let's just let's keep it on the Dolphins. And, uh. Yeah, I just I just don't think they know what they're doing from the office on down.

18:00 Matt: Well, I had Claude be adversarial to me in itself because we were debating between, uh, the Cardinals and the Dolphins.

18:06 Andrew: That's true. Arizona's a dog, too. Yeah.

18:08 Matt: And it did come back and I was like, you know, challenge yourself, challenge whatever. And it's like, nope. In the end, pick the Dolphins. Their quarterback situation is a burning dumpster fire. Like they're more likely to lose, let's say go like one in sixteen, I think. So anyway they have the more crash and burn potential. So you can follow along with that while keeping that um, updated every week too. Speaking of losers and not losers, should we talk a little bit survivor? Do we have time to talk about survivor football?

18:33 Andrew: Yeah, let's talk about survivor. It's not my favorite thing in the world because I'm awful at it. But you do quite well at it.

18:40 Matt: You. Yeah. You backed out of our pool this year. You really just you're a you're a quitter, in fact.

18:45 Andrew: Wow. Okay, why don't you explain the mechanics of survivor first for like, very quickly for anyone who doesn't know it. And then I can tell you why I don't do it anymore.

18:52 Matt: Okay. Basically, survivor is very simple. You pick one team to win each week. If you are correct, you survive and move on. And if your team loses, that's it. And so you might be thinking, well, why don't I just pick the best team every week and you can. But the thing is, you can only pick a team once per season. So if you use the Rams in Week one, you can't use them again. So there's a bit of strategy going on there. Um, but it is very simple. I prefer it to say doing fantasy because fantasy can be all consuming. But here it's just like, hey, pick a winner each week and it's kind of fun. Then you have one extra team to watch every week. Now explain to us why you suck. Do you want to explain why you suck? Or why should I explain why I'm good at it?

19:26 Andrew: I think why I suck is two things.

19:27 Matt: Okay, I wasn't being that serious.

19:29 Andrew: I saw it first.

19:30 Matt: I wasn't being that serious. But now I want to hear what you have to say.

19:32 Andrew: Yeah, well, I suck is because I leave it to the last minute every time because it's just. It is like you said, it's not fancy. It's just one thing. So you're like, oh, I'll just make my pick. And then. But the truth is you have to look at the season like you have to look at the full, the full game strength, all that kind of stuff. So I think the first year we did it as a pool, I, along with loads of people chose the Bengals who had a heavily, I think the spread was like minus ten or something. And they just tanked game one. And I was like, oh great, what a fun season. Long bet that I'm now out of and just had to participate in a group chat where everyone kept talking about all the fun they were having playing this game that I had already spent money on. So yeah, I just don't do it anymore.

20:07 Matt: I get it, and I don't really think I'm that good. I did get lucky and win my pool. I have a pool with my friend, Scott C, who lives in Tampa, Florida. We used to work together many years ago and he does one with a bunch of people, and I did get lucky and win that one last year, but But speaking of large entries, I was looking at, um, the circa should I talk about circa now or should we? I don't know, I don't know if that's a smooth enough transition. Should I just keep going?

20:30 Andrew: Yeah, go for it.

20:31 Matt: Speaking of big buys, so you're saying if you do a big buy and then lose the first week, then it sucks. So I was looking at circa the, it's the all adult, casino in Vegas downtown. It's one of the new ones. but I really like this place because.

20:41 Andrew: Just real quick, Matt, I don't know if you know this, but all casinos are all adults.

20:44 Matt: No, no, no, but I mean, the whole building, like the hotel, everything like you cannot get in the building if you're under twenty one years old.

20:50 Andrew: Do people take kids to Vegas casino hotels?

20:53 Matt: Yeah, all the time. It's just little shitheads running around everywhere and.

20:57 Andrew: In the casinos.

20:58 Matt: I mean, like in the I mean the pool, like at the pool. You got kid pee in the pool everywhere. But here there's no kids in the pool. They also have like a million screens out anyway.

21:06 Andrew: That is hilarious.

21:07 Matt: But anyway, the building literally they have people in the like car park, little footbridge. there's someone to stop you and be like, are you twenty one? Otherwise you can't even go in this building. You can't even go in the building to pee in the public restroom.

21:17 Andrew: Great.

21:17 Matt: Good. Anyway, so they do this really cool survivor League, which is one thousand USD per enter. You can enter up to ten times and you can rebuy if you lose in week one, which is good for you, but it is one thousand bucks. They do twenty million guaranteed no rake. In twenty twenty five they had eighteen thousand entries. Um, I think it's a pretty sweet thing. Anyway, if if you make it to the end, you split the twenty million with whoever survived They do twenty legs because they do weeks, one through eighteen plus Thanksgiving Eve, Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday and a Christmas leg. So you get a little bit more in there. But I think you need. Go on.

21:51 Andrew: Sorry. So they had eighteen thousand entries? Yeah. At one thousand dollars a pop. Yep. And they're giving out twenty million dollars.

21:58 Matt: Yep. So it looks like they had a bit of an overlay, but That says entries. So I guess some people would have rebought or I don't know if people that counts. Rebuys. I don't have that data in front of me, so I'm not sure if they had an overlay or not.

22:10 Andrew: Yeah, that sounds like a weird loss leader for if you can. If you don't have to do it in person or maybe you do, I don't know anyway. Okay.

22:17 Matt: Yeah. But anyway, yeah, you have to kind of do it in Nevada, but you can hire a proxy. So apparently you can do a winner's circle proxy for about one hundred and twenty five bucks, and someone will go there and make your bet for you. so I'm thinking about doing it. I feel like that'd be a good sweat for this season. Oh, we could just fly to Vegas. We could. Should we fly to Vegas tomorrow?

22:34 Andrew: Do it. I'm ready.

22:35 Matt: I am ready to. But my mom's in town, and I feel like I shouldn't leave her here.

22:38 Andrew: That would be a bit weird if your.

22:40 Matt: Mom.

22:40 Andrew: Came to visit all the way to Asia and you just took off and went to Vegas.

22:44 Matt: Yeah, but she probably wouldn't be that surprised. That's the thing. Yeah. But anyway, also good childhood anyway.

22:50 Andrew: All right. So you might fly to Vegas. You might do circa. You are very smart at survivor. Congratulations. Thank you.

22:55 Matt: But I very smart in general.

22:57 Andrew: You are very smart in general. But I feel like last time you hit me with a very, like, rapid fire.

23:03 Matt: Like, uh, oh.

23:03 Andrew: Quiz of, questions that I did. I did quite well on actually, I think, I think I nailed.

23:08 Matt: You did your analysis. If you guys, if you haven't listened to episode ten, you got to go back and hear Andrew's prognostication because he pretty much nailed all of them. And we didn't do prep. It sounds like he prepped and knew them all, but he's just a smart human being anyway.

23:20 Andrew: Yeah, and mine was the thing you hit me with was a decent amount of math, I thought. which is which is not my.

23:27 Matt: Strong.

23:27 Andrew: Suit. You have like multiple strong suits, one of which is math. But I'm going to hit you with some more general. Uh oh. NFL week one questions just for fun. So this is like a lightning round. We'll test this. If it works, it works. If it doesn't, it doesn't. Are you ready?

23:39 Matt: Oh, yeah. I'm a little bit scared, but I'm ready.

23:42 Andrew: Okay, great.

23:43 Matt: I'm gonna sound stupid.

23:44 Andrew: We're going to have to be quick. Okay. All right. So I'll do, uh, where do you think is the most expensive and the cheapest tickets in the league in, in week one.

23:54 Matt: Can I pull up the schedule or not?

23:55 Andrew: Yeah. Yeah.

23:56 Matt: Okay. Okay. Okay. We're doing it fast. We're doing it live. All right. So I want to say so my first instinct would be to say Cleveland would be the cheapest. Yeah. I'm going to say it's it's Jaguars at Browns. I'm gonna say Browns are the cheapest and the most expensive. I'm gonna go Rams and 49ers.

24:17 Andrew: Uh, that's in San Francisco.

24:19 Matt: I think it's in Melbourne. That's in Melbourne.

24:20 Andrew: Yeah I think that's. Oh I think the Australians are reasonable people.

24:23 Matt: Um but it's such a well. Okay. Chiefs and Broncos. That's another one. Giants and Cowboys. That's a marquee. Okay. So now we have three. Okay. Let's do the cheapest one first. I'm doing final answer. Uh Jaguars and Browns cheapest.

24:34 Andrew: I'm sure that's close. It's the Jets in Nashville.

24:37 Matt: Oh they're playing in Nashville. I didn't realize.

24:40 Andrew: That. Twenty eight US dollars.

24:43 Matt: Okay, that's a good one I didn't see. Okay. I kind of skipped over that one. That's that's that's a good one. All right. Most expensive. Let me lock in my final answer here. So my three finalists are Chiefs, Broncos, Giants at Cowboys and the Melbourne Rams at 49ers. I don't know what they would charge in Australia. The AUD is pretty weak now. I can't think of any others.

25:01 Andrew: Let me tell you this. So Melbourne is third.

25:03 Matt: Okay.

25:03 Andrew: Cowboys. Giants is second.

25:05 Matt: Holy shit.

25:05 Andrew: Okay, there's one above that.

25:08 Matt: Oh well, I mean, I said she's Broncos, so I'm going to stick with it.

25:11 Andrew: It's the Pats Seahawks in Seattle.

25:13 Matt: And oh that's a good one. That is a good one.

25:16 Andrew: So I'll tell you this. Melbourne comes in at two fifty. Woo. What do you think Pat Seahawks comes in at as the.

25:21 Matt: Let's go two ninety nine Bob.

25:23 Andrew: Two seventy three two hundred and seventy three US dollars to watch a game in Seattle. so yeah, congrats to all you Microsoft Amazon types out there.

25:31 Matt: Okay. Okay, so I got what you did, the top three and the other ones. I'm two for four on yours so far, which was a failing grade. Yeah.

25:38 Andrew: But okay, we're going with a little bit more of this, uh, this sort of frilly stuff, but, NFL top selling jersey last year.

25:47 Matt: Oh, God, I am so. I mean.

25:52 Andrew: I'll give you a Chiefs hint, which is Mahomes was sixth.

25:55 Matt: Okay. I mean, yeah, he's the first one that comes to my mind. I mean, who do people like? Okay, I'm gonna go with, uh. I'm gonna go with Matthew Stafford.

26:05 Andrew: Oh, it doesn't even make the top five.

26:07 Matt: Damn it. All right, can I have one more guess?

26:10 Andrew: Likable white quarterbacks are way at the top. Mhm. There's one or two.

26:16 Matt: White quarterbacks. Yeah. Uh, they're one and two. Yeah. Damn it. Uh, shoot! Who's the guy who came, who's, like, forty nine million years old and came back? Not no no no no.

26:30 Andrew: Not him. Flutie.

26:31 Matt: No no no no no no no. The guy, uh, Philip Rivers.

26:35 Andrew: Oh. Rivers.

26:36 Matt: I feel like maybe his high school team, they each bought like ten jerseys. No no no. Uh, could I have one more? Drake. Drake. Maye. Final answer.

26:43 Andrew: Okay, so Drake Maye is number two. Ah. The most the most likable quarterback in the NFL was a bit of a loser. His name is.

26:51 Matt: Oh. Oh right. Josh Allen our friend Josh Allen, our friend Josh Allen who's still very welcome to come on the show. Uh, please email info at world dot com if you would like to come on the show or you or your agent, we'd be happy to have you on. We'd be super nice. I'll eat my words, and I will buy your jersey and donate it to a charity if you do come on the show.

27:09 Andrew: Well, that's an amazing offer. All right, Josh Allen, reach out. It was Josh Allen. Drake Maye. Saquon Barkley was number three. Okay. And then it goes on from there. Okay. Let's just do one more of these because they are a little frivolous here.

27:20 Matt: Yeah. But so is life. Okay.

27:23 Andrew: Yeah. Okay. The last one for the the second game of the season in Melbourne. what is your best guess on how many tickets have been sold for that game? The Melbourne Cricket ground.

27:33 Matt: Yeah, I want to go with sixty nine thousand four hundred.

27:38 Andrew: Would it help you to know that It is number like eight in the top ten stadiums in the U.S., which are all college stadiums, by the way.

27:46 Matt: Oh, so it must be bigger. Okay, then I will revise upward. I'll go eighty three thousand eight hundred.

27:52 Andrew: They've sold one hundred thousand and twenty four tickets for this game.

27:55 Matt: People are gonna be sitting in each other's laps for that. That's pretty crazy.

27:58 Andrew: Well, I think it's a massive it's like a massive cricket ground circle thing.

28:01 Matt: That's pretty wild. Yeah. So you were saying I want to ask you a quick one. Traditionally that would have been the first because they do Thursday Night Football. Now they're doing Wednesday Night Football. So just really quick uh, fan or not a fan of starting on a Wednesday night.

28:14 Andrew: I'm just so fucking eager to get into NFL season. I don't care, so that's fine. I do think Wednesday night it's a bit silly. And as much as I love the fact that NFL has like creeped over a period of time, especially out here where I can't watch all Sundays. So I get like I get Friday morning, Um, I get Monday morning, I get Tuesday morning. So I like that creep of spreading it out over a lot of mornings. But I do not think that I want an NFL game every single day of the week. I like a little time, a little bit to look forward to that kind of.

28:43 Matt: Yeah, I think it would be weird. I agree with that. So yeah, I'm kind of a fan also because I feel like it's been a long time, but yeah. Okay. Um, what I want to talk about just briefly, I, I did a bunch of research about the best games of the year I'm looking forward to. And I want to ask you week one, what's the what's the game in week one that you're the most looking forward to? I'm going to park it either watch it on delay, if it's at a weird time, or I'm going to spend the whole morning watching it. Which one? Pick one only.

29:09 Andrew: Yeah. I'm going to take Friday off work and I'm going to watch the game at the MCG. And um, that's that's what I'm most excited about. I want to also, I really want to scrutinize and see what happens to Rams prices before and after this game because they are so hyped up. The defense now is everything about them is just pure hype. And I just I want to see where that goes.

29:29 Matt: I would be hard to argue with that one. Okay. Speaking of specific games, let's talk about week one bets.

29:34 Andrew: Yeah, let's do it. These are bets of the week will be week one on the NFL. Um I do you want to go first?

29:40 Matt: Um no, I think I talked way too much and people probably want to hear you at this point.

29:45 Andrew: Okay, well, I'm going to do I think I'm going to do what, uh, everyone says you should not do. Okay, I agree with which is I'm going to do a combo or a parlay. Oh, these days.

29:55 Matt: I like.

29:55 Andrew: It because I want to sweat a few games at once and, I'm going to take the bills which are minus one and a half. at Houston I, I think that like minus one and a half to me is, is basically the moneyline. Don't tell, don't, don't write in sharp bettors and tell me how wrong I am, but I think the bills are going to win that and relatively handily and minus one and a half is a great little spread there. So I'm going to take that. I'm going to combine that with the Steelers, who are at home against the Falcons. Atlanta just seems like a bit of a mess right now. Like they they don't really know what's happening. QB they've lost, some defense. so I just I think Pittsburgh at home. Uh, it's minus two and a half. And then last but not least, I'm going to take Baltimore at Indianapolis because I like Baltimore this year. I think they've, um, they've been so close last few years to being great. And um, I want to give them a first week sort of, I feel like they'll have a lot of energy going in and be ready for it like Indianapolis is.

30:54 Matt: Yeah.

30:54 Matt: I think yeah, that actually kind of like, I wish I picked that one. Okay, so you're doing three team parlay, three team combo, whatever you want to call it.

31:01 Andrew: I'm gonna do a three team combo. Okay. I'll probably use magic for that because it's better on the combo stuff. So yeah, I'll put it in and tell you the price later, but it'll be. Yeah. So I'm taking the bills. I am taking Pittsburgh and I'm taking the Ravens.

31:12 Matt: Okay. And two home teams and one away team. If I followed you correctly on that. So are you doing the are you doing spread or are you doing moneyline.

31:19 Andrew: Sorry. It's two away teams and one home team.

31:21 Matt: Oh, that's a bold move. That's a bold move. Sorry, I.

31:24 Andrew: I agree. I am taking the spread. Okay.

31:27 Matt: I like a true parlay.

31:29 Andrew: Yeah it's good. Yeah. I could look at the moneyline depending on the odds, but I think I'll probably just do. Yeah. Three spreads all combined. And I'll let you know the final price once this is over.

31:37 Matt: Okay. But how how many units are you putting on? Let's at least we got to get this down in the public record before you, uh.

31:42 Andrew: Oh, yeah. This is on. For a combo like this, I'd probably put on, like, three, four units.

31:48 Matt: Okay. Is it three or four? Three. Three to four.

31:52 Andrew: Uh, let's commit to three.

31:53 Matt: Okay. Three units. Okay. Sweet. I have to say that I do like the Ravens. Colts. I probably should have picked that one. Maybe I'll jump on that one later, but, um. Okay, so mine this week, I'm not going to do a combo parlay. I'm just going to do five. I'm going to do two units on five games and hope to get at least three of them right. Then I'll be profitable. So I put this together two days ago. So I'm just going to read what I did. But the lines may vary just a little bit. I'm doing uh Seahawks minus three and a half. Then I'm going to do Rams minus three three and a half whatever it is now 49ers in Melbourne. I think the Rams if they're as strong as everyone else says they are. Um then I'm doing okay. I don't like the Cowboys. And I feel like they always underperform. this is my probably most controversial. But I'm going to do Giants plus three when hosting the Cowboys. And then I'm doing well of course I will take Raiders over the Dolphins with a spread. In fact, week one survivor I might be tempted to take the Raiders because what else are you going to use. The Raiders. And they're playing the Dolphins at home. So I kind of feel like uh, maybe maybe week one survivor will be Raiders. But anyway, I'm betting that I'm betting Raiders at the spread and then Chiefs and Broncos. But I'm taking the Broncos. I'm taking the Broncos plus three I just feel like Broncos are pretty strong last year and the Chiefs, I don't know if they've really patched Mahomes a big question mark. They did pick up Kenneth Walker, which is pretty sweet, but I still think a lot of gaps. I feel pessimistic about this season. I feel sad.

33:15 Andrew: Does your family listen to this?

33:17 Matt: Um, I don't know if I tell them it's only sports and no politics. Maybe they will listen to it. Yeah. Um, but we'll see. So anyway, those are my five Seahawks and Rams minus three and a half. Giants plus two and a half. Broncos plus three and a fade. The Dolphins as usual. And we'll also do the Dolphins of course every week Dolphins moneyline bet. So we'll do that. And then so this is a big week. We usually do one bet a week. But now we're doing a lot because we're also doing our basket our season basket bet.

33:43 Andrew: Those are just individual picks for you.

33:45 Matt: Correct. All individual picks. Yeah. And on my basket bet I'm I'm in for twenty five units now. It's going to end up being more like twenty six to twenty seven because I am going to cover the Chargers. And I'll get to at least break even on the bears right now. It's I'm a little bit negative if the bears win. So let's say my basket ends up at twenty six and a half units.

34:05 Andrew: All right. I'm gonna put ten in my basket. Sweet I think.

34:08 Matt: Nice and easy. Okay. This is pretty exciting. A lot to track. We're gonna have a lot of stuff to score and see if we are worth following or not. Or if we start becoming, losing, uh, losing bettors, then I don't know. People have to listen for the banter only, which I feel like is a pretty thin, thin proposition.

34:24 Andrew: Yeah, well, sorry about that, guys. And, uh, I think we get Josh Allen on there. That'll that'll clean up nicely. So I think that about wraps it for our, for our NFL preview episode eleven, whatever you want to call it. Um, it's been good. We're looking forward to the NFL season. If you've got ideas, thoughts, angry takes, let us know.

34:44 Matt: Could you please share this with a friend? By the way, share it with someone who loves betting or who loves football or or hates AOC.

34:50 Andrew: Yeah. Please do. And if you know somebody or if you are somebody who wants to get on and talk to us, we're always interested in having, having an additional, uh, talking head on here to try to get to the bottom of what everyone's interested in and what's going on in this world.

35:02 Matt: Why did you give me the throat cutting sign? Why did you tell me to stop talking? I feel we should just stop now.

35:08 Andrew: Yeah, I think that's right.

35:09 Matt: Stop now. All right. Good luck with your week one bets. Good luck to everyone except for the dolphins. And, uh, we'll talk to you in a week or two, and we'll score everything and see how we're doing.

35:17 Andrew: Yeah. Sounds great. Looking forward to it. And, um, see you later.

35:22 Matt: Okay. Goodbye. Goodbye. Now.