Andrew and I agreed to this on the prep call and I've been grinning about it since. One team, every week, opposite side. Andrew puts $1,000 on the season win-total under. I put $100 on whoever Miami is playing, on the moneyline, all 17 games. A case of wine rides on which of us finishes ahead.
This year's Miami Dolphins are the most thoroughly dismantled roster in the league, and I think they're worse than the market has them.
Miami Dolphins 2026: how bad are they?
Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are gone. Mike McDaniel is gone. The new head coach, Jeff Hafley, has never run an NFL team. The quarterback is Malik Willis, who the Titans gave up on and the Packers kept as a backup. The defense might be the worst unit in the league, and they drew the second-hardest schedule in football.
The market noticed. DraftKings opened Miami at 4.5 wins and cut it to 3.5 in August, over -140 and under +110 (CBS, September 1). BetMGM has them +375 to finish with the fewest wins in the NFL, second only to Arizona (BetMGM, August 7). Week 1 in Las Vegas opened with the Raiders laying 1.5 and closed with them laying 3.5 (SBD, September 2).
Here's the part I like. Miami traded its backup, Quinn Ewers, and cut the third stringer. If Willis misses time, this team is starting Kyle McCord or a rookie. A bad team is in the price. A bad team with no backup quarterback isn't, yet.
Fading the NFL's worst team, 2021 to 2025: five seasons of real lines
I pulled every team whose preseason win total sat under 5 at a major sportsbook in the last five seasons, nine team-seasons in all, and ran a flat $100 fade on the opponent's moneyline for all 17 games, using the moneylines in the nflverse game file. Real prices, real results, 153 bets.
Profit or loss per team-season, flat $100 against each team every game. Total in blue.
| Season | Team | Win total | Actual wins | Avg opponent price | P/L on $1,700 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Texans | 4.5 | 4 | 1.30 | -$25 |
| 2021 | Lions | 4.5 | 3 | 1.34 | +$147 |
| 2022 | Falcons | 4.5 | 7 | 1.90 | -$163 |
| 2022 | Texans | 4.5 | 3 | 1.40 | +$188 |
| 2023 | Cardinals | 4.5 | 4 | 1.35 | +$58 |
| 2024 | Panthers | 4.5 | 5 | 1.37 | -$34 |
| 2024 | Patriots | 4.5 | 4 | 1.42 | +$155 |
| 2025 | Browns | 4.5 | 5 | 1.50 | +$71 |
| 2025 | Saints | 4.5 | 6 | 1.62 | -$127 |
| Total, 153 bets | 1.47 | +$270 (+1.8%) | |||
Five of nine finished green. Look at which ones paid: the 2022 Texans, the 2024 Patriots, the 2021 Lions. Teardowns. Rookie or journeyman quarterback, new coach, nothing to play for by Thanksgiving. The two that lost real money, the 2022 Falcons and last year's Saints, had a veteran quarterback who kept them at six or seven wins.
Miami is the teardown. That's the whole bet.
Moneyline fade vs win-total under: the same nine teams
Andrew's side, $1,000 on the under, hit five of nine over the same span and still lost money. The juice on a sub-5 total runs around -175, so the winners paid $571 and the losers cost $1,000, for a net of -$468 on $9,000. The moneyline route beat it by about $740, because every week you're being paid to hold the favorite instead of paying all year to hold the under.
The under is also hostage to which number you got: Arizona's closed at 3.5 in 2023 and they won four, Carolina's closed at 5.5 in 2024 and they won five. Sorry, Andrew.
To be really clear, five seasons is a small sample and one season swings a few hundred dollars either way. The pattern that pays is the one Miami fits, and we're going to find out in public.
Miami Dolphins 2026 schedule
Eleven of Miami's 17 opponents are priced at 9.5 wins or better. Opponent win totals from DraftKings, July 23. Week 1 is the only game with a live line as I write this: Raiders -3 to -3.5 at the books, and 62.5¢ on Polymarket, which is the same as -167 (SBD, September 2).
| Week | Date | Opponent | Opponent win total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 13 | at Raiders | 5.5 |
| 2 | Sep 20 | at 49ers | 9.5 |
| 3 | Sep 27 | Chiefs | 10.5 |
| 4 | Oct 4 | at Vikings | 8.5 |
| 5 | Oct 11 | Bengals | 10.5 |
| 6 | Oct 18 | Bye | — |
| 7 | Oct 25 | at Jets | 5.5 |
| 8 | Nov 1 | Patriots | 10.5 |
| 9 | Nov 8 | Lions | 10.5 |
| 10 | Nov 15 | at Colts | 7.5 |
| 11 | Nov 22 | at Bills | 10.5 |
| 12 | Nov 29 | Jets | 5.5 |
| 13 | Dec 6 | at Broncos | 9.5 |
| 14 | Dec 13 | Bears | 9.5 |
| 15 | Dec 20 | at Packers | 9.5 |
| 16 | Dec 27 | Chargers | 9.5 |
| 17 | Jan 3 | Bills | 10.5 |
| 18 | Jan 9/10 | at Patriots | 10.5 |
The three games that can hurt are the Raiders and the two Jets games, where Miami is a short underdog at most and the payout for being right is small. Schedule from miamidolphins.com.
How we're tracking the Dolphins fade all season
Every week I take the Dolphins' opponent on the moneyline at the better of the sportsbook and Polymarket price, and log both. Week 1 that's the Raiders at 62.5¢ on Polymarket, the same as -167, against -180 to -198 at the books. Andrew's under gets logged once. Both totals go on the scorecard, and the wine gets settled in January.
Disclosure: we hold an open position against the Dolphins this season, listed on our scorecard. Our Polymarket links carry a referral code. None of this is betting advice.
Turn a moneyline into a probability
-325 and 1.31 and 76.5% are the same number. The converter does the translation.
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