Selling Harris, Buying Newsom & Will the Dolphins Go 0-17? Off the Cuff!

0:00 Matt: as you may know, I used to work at a VPN, and that VPN is now a crappy VPN after some people left.

0:08 Andrew: Yeah, I know it's the VPN that I use, and that's why I'm turning off my camera now.

0:19 Matt: Um, yeah. Why don't we just start? We can just lead right in. Why don't we just say World at Odds? Episode twelve. Is it twelve? Has to be twelve. How? I can't keep track of my own show.

0:30 Andrew: episode twelve, The Dirty Dozen. We are here and we're calling this episode "off the cuff" because. Right, we planned this episode, but both of us woke up this morning having totally forgotten that today was the day and having done very little prep. So you're in for a treat today, folks. Yeah.

0:47 Matt: I also woke up late. I've been waking up at five a m to go exercise, But last night, I drank a bunch of beers. I watch interstellar with my mom. My mom's visiting, by the way. And then I slept really late. But I feel awesome today, even though I drank a bunch of beers. Have you seen interstellar?

1:03 Andrew: I have seen interstellar. What have you. Is this your first time watching it?

1:07 Matt: No, no no. It's like my fourth time. I love it, but how do you rate that movie from zero to five? Five is like the best movie you've ever seen. Zero is, Ace Ventura Pet Detective three.

1:17 Andrew: I don't love Matthew McConaughey in that movie. I feel like he's not the right one, but, uh, so I'd probably give it like a three ish three and a half. I don't know, I like the I love Christopher Nolan. I love that sort of sci fi time, time bending stuff. I just don't think he was the right one for that movie. It's like this bizarre farmer dude who's like a some sort of rocket hero. I don't know, it just strikes me as bizarre.

1:42 Matt: I actually thought he was fine. So I kind of disagree with you there, but I thought this movie was really long, right? Which I like. I like long movies because then you get good character development and instead of just like a bunch of shit, that doesn't make sense. But even in a long movie, they don't explain how the world got to the way it was at the beginning. I don't want to give spoilers. but like, they never explain how the world got to where it got at the beginning. And maybe the point was so they don't get all political about like global warming or something. but I thought that was weird that they never explained that part. And like, why did the textbooks say that the moon landing was faked or whatever? But okay, that was kind of a spoiler.

2:17 Andrew: Yeah, I see, I don't think you can spoil a movie that came out, what, fifteen years ago or sixteen years ago? Maybe more.

2:23 Matt: It's only twelve years ago. and Diana said the same thing. She always gives me a hard time like, oh, this is an old movie. It's like it's not an old movie. Anyway, there's also some really good themes in that movie for AI. I think if you haven't watched it in ten years, it's also good to watch because there's some really interesting like AI type themes even like indirectly. So anyway.

2:43 Andrew: All right.

2:44 Matt: Anyway, that was a, that was a really weird aside. What do you want to talk about today?

2:49 Andrew: Well, I want to jump in with a spoiler, which is that I looked at the price of the Dolphins game just before we started. I saw the spread at minus thirteen and a half and I was like, wow, that's a really big spread. But then I looked at the actual price right now and the San Francisco forty nine ers are at ninety cents. on the money line. Obviously that's um, that's pretty big. That's a, that's a big price to pay.

3:10 Matt: yeah, let's do talk about NFL. And then we're going to talk a little bit about midterms and some twenty twenty eight stuff in the middle, and we'll do our new bet. So if you want to listen to politics stuff, if you're not into sports. Go ahead and skip to I don't know. Skip to wherever we start talking about politics, but let's talk about NFL now.

3:26 Andrew: Yeah, let's do it. How was your how was your weekend of trading NFL Matt.

3:31 Matt: it was pretty good. I went four and two on our official bets. We bet five. And then we're obviously betting against the Dolphins every single week. And I went four and two I also bet, I bet more on my personal side on the Ravens game, which was a tip from you. So I actually ended up coming out, more ahead and how did you do?

3:51 Andrew: Well, I did great. I, did what I what a good trader should not do, and I placed a combo, but I thought it was a pretty solid one. Do you have it in front of you?

4:00 Matt: Oh yeah, I do, I have it right in front of me now. you did a three team parlay. You did the bills minus one point five Steelers minus two point five against the Falcons and Ravens minus four point five at the Colts.

4:14 Andrew: Yes. And I don't think all of those were the were the standard line. I can't remember which ones I adjusted But uh, yeah, hit it. Hit well, uh, I think I put three units on it and I got that entire package at what, six? I can't remember what we said. Six cents.

4:29 Matt: I think it was like thirteen. But anyway.

4:31 Andrew: Anyway, so that went very well for me. And then fade to dolphins, of course, like I'm going to do this weekend for sure.

4:37 Matt: Okay, so I want to, since we're doing off the cuff, what was your, what was your most surprising result of the weekend? What game were you watching thinking, oh, holy shit.

4:48 Andrew: Besides the Rams getting trounced in such a brutal way? Was it you who said, the Rams are going to be riddled with injuries and, and just underperform all year because they've got too much hype. Is that you you said that or was that someone else?

5:00 Matt: It might have been someone else, but I was the one against their travel schedule to Melbourne. I mean, as you know, I am an avid traveler and I thought that was a really fucking stupid idea of what they did. But I don't think I said the injury thing.

5:13 Andrew: Yeah. Right. Well I mean Myles Garrett obviously it's going to be tough for them going forward but uh, yeah, that was, that was a bit surprising. And the travel schedule. Yeah, I understood that as a risk going in, but it's, um, I don't know. I didn't expect twenty seven seven, that's for sure. The other one that I thought was really wild and makes me a bit nervous about our longer term stuff is the Lions Saints game. and just how close that was. Did you watch that one?

5:37 Matt: Oh yeah. Yeah, I watched that. I, I put up my five TV set. I watched everything on delay. So I, I muted you and everyone else all live Monday morning and I watched, I'd say I watched nine or ten out of the games this weekend. but yeah, I did watch that one.

5:53 Andrew: Wow. Yeah. So that was a shocker. Oh, one last one. And then I'll ask you, but I thought just I woke up and I was just checking the scores. So I opened up my phone and first score I saw was the bears Panthers score. Fifty nine thirty seven I mean, they must have been a touchdown every two minutes. I was fucking insane.

6:09 Matt: So we put that one on in one of the TVs. And it was, it was pretty awesome.

6:12 Andrew: What were your takeaways from this, uh, this first NFL weekend?

6:16 Matt: Yeah, I got a few. So I'm actually the first one is I'm actually pretty optimistic about the Giants. I actually think they could win nine or ten games. I think their preseason over under was seven point five or eight point five. I actually can't remember now, but I actually think they'll do, uh, seeing them trounce the Cowboys. And I just think they're so well coached now and the players care a lot. I feel pretty optimistic about them. I'm really excited to see what happens on Monday Night Football this week when they play the Rams. I mean I feel like that is a huge matchup. Maybe that's like the matchup of the week coming up just because Giants seem better than we thought and Rams obviously super deflated after that. So I don't know. I think that's going to be a wild one. So anyway Um Josh Allen looked pretty weak. He just threw the ball up for grabs. I mean he really seemed like a loser if I had to say so. and the Texans secondary also looked really bad. I just watched that and throwing like he got away with just throwing throwing the ball up for grabs so many times. And then, uh, the Dolphins were even worse than we thought, I actually, I wouldn't be surprised if the Dolphins go zero seventeen.

7:18 Andrew: Oh well good. Then we're then our our our "fade every week" strategy is going to be going to be a big winner.

7:25 Matt: Yeah. I wish I could talk to your Claude directly. You can tell your Claude that I said, I think the Packers are all hype. I think your Claude was trying to get you to put the Packers in your season basket. And I think they're hype. Yeah that's right. They're great.

7:39 Andrew: Yeah that's right. And I don't think I did. So we're we're all safe there. And all of my orders, uh, finally filled on my basket right before the weekend. should we, um, should we talk about this week ahead and Let's just go straight into we've got a big game. It's it'll be Thursday Night football. Oh yeah. Maybe this episode will come out before that. Uh, maybe it won't, but it will. we should just pick our side here. I'm looking at the, the various spreads on magic markets right now. I am seeing it looks like what is it. Bills minus four and a half. Is the middle there. No. Minus five.

8:14 Matt: I think it's drifted. It was four and a half if I recall correctly. And now it's drifted to five. Uh, so it looks like the money is going on the bills. Yeah it is. looks like the money line opened at sixty, forty, sixty percent bills, forty percent Lions. And now it's all the way up to sixty eight percent bills, which is a pretty huge actually, I see the middle spread at five and a half now,

8:40 Andrew: Wow. Yeah.

8:43 Matt: Well, I don't like that very much, to be honest.

8:46 Andrew: No, I think I'm going to stick it. I, I'm seeing four and a half at at fifty three cents, basically fifty two point nine. I think I'm going to get in on that. Oh sorry. Should we take opposite sides. Are you going to take. Are you going to take the. Yeah that's on magic markets. Are you going to take the bills spread or are you going to you're going to.

9:02 Matt: I'm going to.

9:03 Andrew: Get in on underdog action.

9:05 Matt: No, I would take the I would with that spread. I think people are overreacting to the results from from week one, unless there's an injury that I'm not aware of, but I think I would take the Lions, especially plus five and a half. But I'll do it. I'll do one unit on Lions plus five and a half. I'm going to take the five and a half that I see, though.

9:24 Andrew: All right. Well I'm going to take Bill's minus four and a half. So we could hit a middle here. We could both win.

9:29 Matt: Okay. So what what other games?

9:30 Andrew: why don't you go first? Because I, I'm pulling up the schedule again right now.

9:34 Matt: As soon as they as soon as they saw the lines come out. So I bet on the chiefs. I think it was minus six at Colts. I'll have to double check that one. And just like you said, the Colts are pretty weak this year. And, uh, it's a home game. Chiefs will get almost full rest. So I'm, uh, I'm also long two and a half units on the Chiefs at minus six. So I'm going to take that one as well.

9:55 Andrew: Oh you're finally betting on your team.

9:57 Matt: Yeah. Yeah. I bet against them last week it didn't work out. So we'll uh we'll see how we go. And the other one I see is Chargers and Raiders. The Raiders obviously kind of trounced the Dolphins, and the Chargers were super disappointing. So that line minus six and a half. I kind of think the Chargers will get their shit together. I might be tempted to bet on the Chargers at under under one touchdown on that one. Um anything for you that stands out so far.

10:26 Andrew: I think my team this year is still the Ravens. Like I said last week, they've got the saints and So Baltimore's seven and a half favorites. And gosh, as I said that, sorry, as I said that out loud, I was like, I, I, was not thinking clearly about the the Saints performance against the Lions last week. But I still think Baltimore's the team and I'm loving. I'm just going to use an adjustable what do we call this adjustable spread? Alternate. Alternate. Alternate spread.

10:53 Matt: Alternate lines. Yep.

10:54 Andrew: Yeah. Alternate. And I'm going to take I'm going to take the Ravens minus six and a half instead of seven and a half. And just give myself that little point fluff. that's a fifty eight cents. So I'll put I'm going to put a unit on that. but otherwise yeah. I agree with you. I think the NFL lines are so um just sharp. Sharp is the right word there. And so it's tough to it's tough to come out ahead on those. So let's, maybe that's a great, a great moment then to pivot to what we can actually, game and move a little bit, which is politics.

11:29 Matt: Yes. Let's talk politics.

11:31 Andrew: We've got the midterms coming up. Uh, it is in less than a month and a half. Uh, what are you seeing, Matt?

11:38 Matt: I'm seeing a couple of things. So. So I get on Real Clear Politics every day. If you don't get on that site, it's also one of my favorites, checking the generic congressional ballot. And I'm seeing a big jump towards Democrats. So it just kind of spiked in the last week. it's gone from an aggregate ten days ago of Democrats getting forty eight point one percent to Democrats now getting fifty point three, which is a pretty huge swing. So now the plus minus is plus eight point seven to Democrats. And if you kind of trail that back to the last time a Republican was president and they had about the same, they picked up about forty one seats. And I think we're trending in that direction. Iran war is still going on, still dragging on. Diesel prices hit. What was it, six dollars this last week or something. And national gas average was closer to five. Inflation is well above target Uh, people are worried about AI. I think all of these bode poorly for the party in power. And I'm putting the over under at like thirty seats to Democrats.

12:42 Andrew: Yeah, I think that it will be hard for him to pull a rabbit out of his hat. Like, I hate to say that about Trump because obviously it's happened so many times, but Um, the people that are going to come out are annoyed, angry, um, and not interested.

12:58 Matt: Yeah. And I think on the Republican side, it's what do they have to be angry about? It's like trannies in women's sports, and I'm not sure what else they can be angry about. And I understand if you're passionate about that issue, but in the Jira board of the world of problems, that seems a relatively low priority. Are you registered to vote abroad? Do you get your ballot?

13:23 Andrew: I can vote abroad. I am a resident of the great. What is it? Federal administrative area. District of Columbia. Oh. Which, uh. Just my vote. Just doesn't matter in. In basically every which way. The only thing that matters is my mayor. Uh. And even they are powerless in the face of the US Congress, which we are not represented. And, uh, and my local, um, they call them the a n c the neighborhood commissioner. and that is also a relatively powerless position. So I can't quite describe how little my vote matters in the US.

13:57 Matt: Can I tell you a secret? Nobody's vote actually matters. Uh, it doesn't matter at all. And I think voting I think voting is voting is silly and we should have fewer people voting. That's that's my bombshell of the week.

14:10 Andrew: Well, you're just you're just you're just wrong. That's not that's not accurate. It's false. Your vote does matter. Uh.

14:17 Matt: So PCA, after your long, super long winded answer to me, you do not vote abroad, is that right?

14:23 Andrew: I do, I do vote. Uh, occasionally it just depends on what's what's on the ballot. Um, but yeah, local elections, my vote, my vote just genuinely does not matter. And that's not in a metaphorical, like there's too many people on the ballot since that's literally we do not have a representative like we have a fake representative who goes to Congress and I think sits in the hallway.

14:41 Matt: You know what? That reminds me, I want to tell you a weird story. Maybe I'll edit this out. Uh, when you said the guy sits in the hallway. So when I first moved to Hong Kong, I had a pretty bad problem and I had to go to the hospital. I got rushed to the emergency room and end up staying there for like a week. But the closest one was the public hospital. So I went there and it was wild. Um, and anyway, it was so crowded, there was like no room and no room in the ward. So for a while, I was sitting in a hallway in the bed, and then they wheeled me into the medicine closet. Like I was literally in the closet with just like shelves and shelves of medicine. I could have grabbed whatever I wanted, um, put it in my bag. And then they wheeled me back out in the hallway again before I got into a room. And that room had three beds inside of a room, which should have been one bed, and one of the beds was hanging halfway out the door. And that's how it was.

15:34 Andrew: I think.

15:35 Matt: That just reminds.

15:36 Andrew: Me, this is a metaphor for Eleanor Holmes Norton.

15:39 Andrew: Yeah, like just.

15:40 Matt: Sitting in the hallway of the Capitol building. Yeah, just doing nothing and stealing pills.

15:46 Andrew: Yeah. Perfect. That's that's the DC way. That's where we're at.

15:50 Matt: So I just want people to know a bit more about my life. We should talk more about our lives. I feel like the aside about your dad from the last episode was also probably the best piece of content over all of our NFL bullshit. So if you haven't listened to that, go listen to the sparkling water story from Andrew's dad in the last episode. That was the most riveting. And also, did you send that to him?

16:14 Andrew: No, I did not.

16:16 Matt: God damn it. Ah! Unbelievable. All right. Can you please send it to him? I feel like he will be very amused.

16:22 Andrew: Yeah. All right, I will, I will. All right, let's move on. Let's talk about let's talk about the, uh, the nation's dad.

16:28 Matt: Oh, the nation's dad. Yeah, yeah.

16:30 Andrew: Daddy.

16:30 Matt: Daddy! Trump or.

16:31 Andrew: What? Nation's no wannabe nation's daddy. Uh, I think we both were flicking messages back and forth about a young Gavin Newsom this week. Um, but you definitely did much more reading into the the drama around him than I did. So why don't you take it away and tell us what's going on with Mr.. California? Not yet, Mr.. America Governor Gavin Newsom, right.

16:53 Matt: Your favorite. Okay, so let's do off the cuff. Don't look it up. You said young Gavin Newsom. How old is he? If you can get it within plus minus, uh, one year on either side. I will buy you. I'll buy you a beer.

17:06 Andrew: Let's make Gavin Newsom, fifty three years old.

17:09 Matt: Ah, you're pretty close, but it's fifty eight. So I think the hair, he's got good hair, so it probably makes him look good. Yeah.

17:15 Andrew: Okay.

17:15 Matt: Okay. Anyway, So the big story with Gavin Newsom. He did a really long form interview with Jake Tapper on CNN, which is apparently a new type of segment Tapper is going to do with various politicians on both sides of the aisle. But basically, they did this long form interview, and I think the headline that came out of it before they actually released the interview was Newsom says, if, uh, Kamala Harris runs again, then he is out. He's like, I just won't run. There's no upside. I think he's basically implying. Or maybe he said it more directly later in the interview, that if we both run, we're going to split the votes when it comes to the primary. And if neither one of them really gets the lion's share in California, then kind of what's the point was, I think his point. So he's he basically said directly, I'm going to let her decide first before I decide to run. what's your initial reaction? Gut reaction off the cuff.

18:09 Andrew: It's a it's a horrible thing for the Democratic Party to to go back to this, like, there may be sort of an anointed one. And we'll, plan it out together so that this one gets here and they're like, just have a real fucking competition and run it out until America sees the best candidate and get them on the ballot. But don't do this. Like, don't worry, we're going to, we're all going to play nice and work it out and figure out, I don't know, some sort of strategy. The strategy should be fucking run your hardest until America decides you're in or not.

18:41 Matt: Yeah, I agree. Hey, and I want to take a pause. Uh, Diana just brought me such an awesome fruit bowl, and I just sent it to you on WhatsApp. Can you stop and take a look at it? I just want to spend 10s on this fruit bowl.

18:52 Andrew: Yeah, just a second.

18:53 Matt: Okay. Thanks.

18:53 Andrew: Is that a baby shark fork?

18:55 Matt: Oh, yeah. Yeah, that's her nickname. So I got her. I got her a child's fork, set, fork and spoon set for her birthday.

19:04 Andrew: I gotta say, it really adjusts the vibe of the fruit bowl.

19:08 Andrew: It's a lovely fruit bowl.

19:10 Andrew: Uh, Diana, that's very sweet of you, but it makes it look like

19:13 Matt: I mean, I am kind of a man child, but. Okay, but the fruit bowl does look pretty awesome, right? Like besides the. Yeah, the shark fork.

19:18 Andrew: All right, let's do it.

19:20 Matt: All right. I'm going to put a picture of this up on the website now. But okay. Anyway, back to politics. Thank you for putting up with my side. So to get back on track, you were making the point that Democrats should just run the hardest primary and don't do all this like pre like if this, then that boolean type bullshit before anyone even runs. And I have to agree because I feel like this conventional wisdom of, oh, we can't run this heavy bruising campaign. We can't kind of tear each other down in public. But look what happened with Republicans and Donald Trump. I mean, Trump was just insulting people left and right, people trying to play his game. And now they all get along. And Republicans have been in power for two of the last three cycles.

20:03 Andrew: Yeah.

20:03 Andrew: And I think also like this is what pissed people off with the Democrats last time with Kamala and everything. So it's just not we don't want to see this anymore. We want you guys to to fucking. Yeah. Get there. I don't know what to say. Yeah.

20:19 Matt: Do everything right. That's what you want. Just do the things right. So here's what I think is going to happen. And you probably alluded to this before, and you're obviously well connected in Democratic circles. Uh, and you know a lot more than I do. But you said, hey, people need to go out, they need to shake hands and see if the donor money is there, kind of see what's happening behind the scenes. And I think that's what that was, what people did as a disservice to Joe Biden before. I think they treated it with too much deference, and no one sat him down and was like, dude, you're a one term president. Like, pass it off gracefully. but I feel like someone needs to sit down. Kamala sorry, I I think I said her name wrong before you said it right, but it still sounds weird to say it that way. Someone needs to set Harris down and just kind of tell her that, hey, your time is over and it's time for someone else. So I actually sold I put for sale all of my Harris shares for the twenty twenty eight bet, and I'm stacking Newsom. I'm pretty sure Newsom really wants to run. So he's going to find a way, one way or the other to run.

21:17 Andrew: Yeah, I think that's right. And I think we talked about this with, AOC on her side of this, which is the no matter what happens, I do think Newsom will run for sure, I think, but there will also be these just up and down cycles. And it's the one place where you can not not time them perfectly, but feel very confident that there will be a pop and a. And a deflate and a pop and a deflate along the way. And you can I mean, you can sort of tie them up, but it's, it's not easy, but but they're going to be there no matter what I guess is what I'm saying. Yeah.

21:50 Matt: I think you're right. I think you're very right. Anyway. So let's, uh, what do you want to do now?

21:55 Andrew: Well, speaking of ups and downs, why don't we talk about what's going to happen with this podcast over the next few weeks, because we are coming into the midterms, obviously, which is our bread and butter here, especially your bread and butter. And and we're hearing from you on before it happens. So and but we both have some travel coming up. We're both going to Europe soon. independently will be like a few hundred miles away from each other in, in France for like a week or something like that randomly.

22:20 Matt: I think we have to do on both in France. I'm going to keep saying it like that by the way.

22:26 Andrew: Say it like that while you're there. Over and over again to the people.

22:30 Matt: I think that's how they say it. I think when we say France, we sound like hicks and hillbillies, which we are, because you're from southeast Missouri.

22:39 Andrew: Yeah.

22:41 Matt: Okay. But are we going to meet in France? Can we meet in France? Is there any way we can make this happen, or are you too busy? I feel like you're too busy.

22:47 Andrew: I know, well, I think I'm in Provence, France. And you're north of there somewhere. You're like, I'm in.

22:53 Matt: Ha ha. I'm in Reims, as we say it in English.

22:58 Andrew: Yeah. You're up in champagne country. I'm down in, uh, rosé country.

23:03 Matt: Um, sounds nice, though. Sounds really nice. I don't want to edit too much because then it takes me for fucking ever. So let's try to wrap in the next five minutes. Can we do that?

23:11 Andrew: Yeah, yeah.

23:11 Matt: We've had a pretty good episode. Your transition was awesome, by the way. And should we just talk about our before we talk about our travel a little bit more? Should we talk about our new bets, or are we not ready for that yet?

23:22 Andrew: I think we talked about bets on the NFL. So I think we can count those. We can bank those. Yeah. And we can confidently say to people that we will be back within a couple of weeks to do a real deep, deep dive on any sort of price movements around the midterms and sort of our our mostly final positions that will ride. I'm sure you'll be live trading all the way up to the end. Um, but we will probably have like the solid last over under, um, to talk about on seats. The Democrats will grab Senate and House and then we'll, we'll go from there.

23:54 Matt: Yeah, actually, I had an idea. Okay, hear me out here. I had an idea this week and I just thought of it. I was going to challenge you to one of the circa Survivor League. So we talked about circa sports. They're doing the big twenty million dollar you put a thousand bucks in and they're guaranteed twenty million dollars. But actually I started reading stuff on their page. They're doing several of survivor contests. It's not just one that's like the big headline one, but they're also doing, uh, I think they're doing one was like ten or one hundred thousand dollars entry, but they're also doing a third one, which is called the circa million. Let me read you the rules of this really fast. I think you're going to find it interesting. Okay, so this one's six million guaranteed in prizes. So you make five NFL picks against the spread every week. You get one point for each correct selection and a half point for each push. And basically, whoever has the most points at the end of the season wins, wins the top prize. So I was going to challenge you on this one for the season at least. Every time we podcast before a week starts, we we try to do this. We make five picks against the spread and we just keep track all season. We won't put real money on it. We'll just challenge each other, uh, maybe to a nice bottle of rosé or champagne or something. What do you think?

25:10 Andrew: That sounds great. Set it up. Let's get it. Let's make sure it's public and I'm in.

25:15 Matt: Okay. Sounds good. That'll be fun. And then we don't have to put real units on. We can just bet against each other and talk shit. Amazing.

25:22 Andrew: Perfect.

25:23 Matt: Wish I thought of this twenty minutes ago. This episode would have been way better, but I think you did great. You carried the team this week. And on that note, I wish you a really awesome trip to France and a good rest of your day.

25:35 Andrew: and that's it. That's it for today. The off the cuff episode twelve of World at Odds.